Durable goods orders rise! U.S. manufacturing outlook improves

Durable goods orders rise! U.S. manufacturing outlook improves

According to reports, after two consecutive months of decline, U.S. durable goods orders increased more than expected in September, indicating that the outlook for the U.S. manufacturing industry is improving. U.S. Department of Commerce data showed that U.S. durable goods orders in September recorded a monthly rate of 4.7%, far higher than expected. beat expectations by 1.7%. Among them, transportation equipment orders also increased after two consecutive months of decline, with the largest increase of 12.7%.

In fact, since the second half of the year before last, the consumption of durable goods in the United States has declined significantly, resulting in a weakening of U.S. import demand. This is also an important reason for the decline in China's exports to the United States.

As the U.S. consumption structure shifts to non-durable goods, combined with the position of the inventory cycle, the beneficiaries of U.S. economic resilience may shift from developed European countries to light industry and daily necessities exporters.
From the perspective of U.S. consumption, the demand for durable goods in the United States is declining, and must-have consumption is still growing. From the perspective of inventory, although the total inventory in the United States is high, the pressure to destock daily necessities such as clothing, food, and groceries has been significantly reduced. Likewise, Points to import demand for non-durable goods.

The products that China has benefited from the resilience of the U.S. economy are concentrated in two areas: first, low-value daily commodities for which China’s export share is still high; second, products for which China’s share has increased rapidly and is difficult for other emerging markets to replace. From the former point of view, non-durable products that the United States is highly dependent on China include: umbrellas (China's exports account for more than 90%), woolen products (68%), toys (67%), textiles (43%), etc.

Looking at the latter, the products with a rapidly increasing share of China's exports to the United States are concentrated in railways, trams and locomotives (share increased by 16%), blasting equipment and fireworks products, lead products, etc.