Will the container shipping market see a surge in shipments in December? SCFI index turns down again!

After rising for four consecutive weeks, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell again, but remained stable above 1,000 points.

According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on November 10, the SCFI index fell 37.64 points to 1030.24 points last week, a weekly decrease of 3.52%. Freight rates on the four major ocean routes all fell.

Among them, the freight rate per FEU from the Far East to the US West Line fell by US$259 to 1,843 yuan, a weekly decrease of 12.32%; the freight rate per FEU from the Far East to the US East Line fell by US$80 to US$2,354, with a weekly decrease of 3.29%. The freight rate per TEU from the Far East to Europe line fell by US$34 to US$722, a weekly decrease of 4.50%; the freight rate per TEU from the Far East to the Mediterranean line fell by US$47 to US$1,184, a weekly decrease of 3.82%.

On the near-ocean line, the freight rate per TEU from the Far East to Kansai, Japan, remained unchanged from the previous week at US$307; the freight rate per TEU from the Far East to Kansai, Japan increased by US$2 from the previous week to US$321; the freight rate per TEU from the Far East to Southeast Asia was US$321. It increased by US$2 from the previous week to US$194; the freight rate per TEU from the Far East to South Korea remained unchanged from the previous week at US$142.

Industry insiders said that the Christmas-year-end cargo pull-up effect in Europe and the United States continues to ferment, and there are rumors in the market that European and American routes are planning to increase prices again in December. Considering that the market will usher in a shipment wave before the Spring Festival starting in mid-December, it is estimated that container shipping companies will increase prices in this round. The success rate is relatively high; and recently, container shipping companies have achieved the goal of building a bottom and then raising prices to protect prices by repeatedly calling for prices. In the future, the American line will strive to maintain a stable price of 2,000 US dollars, and the European line will at least be above 1,000 US dollars.

In addition, as the drought in the Panama Canal continues to expand and the number of ships waiting to pass through continues to increase, companies in the industry have paid sky-high tolls for fast passage. Japan's Eneos sold US$3.975 million (approximately RMB 2897.5) in a recent auction. Qualification for fast customs clearance is obtained at a historically high price of RMB 10,000, and this does not include standard transit fees of hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Among the 140 bids held by the Panama Canal Authority in October, three winning bids exceeded US$1 million. As the cost of passing the Panama Canal continues to rise, container shipping companies have more confidence to raise freight rates in the fourth quarter.

On the other hand, the industry pointed out that the cargo volume of the container shipping market has rebounded after the National Day, and the demand for shipments should be maintained until mid-December. It is expected that container shipping companies will gradually arrange ship docking maintenance despite weak demand this year. , installing desulfurization devices and other methods to reduce transportation capacity, so the overall freight rate will be better supported in the fourth quarter.

Looking to the future, market experts point out that the current freight rates have rebounded slightly due to seasonal factors, but it is too early to say that there will be a sharp rebound in the long term; the market will be extremely challenging next year, and the imbalance between supply and demand for shipping spaces will expand. Container shipping companies need to actively adapt in a direction that is beneficial to themselves. Reduce impact.