The Red Sea is in turmoil again
On March 16, Yemen's Houthi rebels reported that U.S. airstrikes on March 15 targeting the capital Sanaa, Saada province, and other areas had resulted in at least 53 deaths. U.S. President Donald Trump announced on March 15 that he had ordered "decisive and forceful military action" against the Houthi rebels.
Trump stated on social media that U.S. forces were attacking Houthi leaders, military bases, and air defense systems. He labeled the Houthis as "terrorists," accusing them of frequently attacking U.S. and allied ships, aircraft, and drones in the Red Sea region over the past year. He vowed to use "overwhelming lethal force" against the Houthis and warned Iran to immediately cease its support for the group.
According to U.S. media reports, the U.S. military launched a large-scale operation from both air and sea, focusing on destroying Houthi radar, air defense, missile, and drone systems to secure the Red Sea shipping route. U.S. officials indicated that the operation would last several days, marking one of the most significant military actions since the start of Trump's second term and serving as a warning to Iran.
Houthi Retaliation: Attack on U.S. Aircraft Carrier
On the night of March 15, the Houthi political bureau issued a statement condemning the U.S. and UK for attacking residential buildings in Sanaa, calling it an act of aggression and a war crime. The statement accused the U.S. of fighting for Israel and emphasized that the attacks would not deter Yemen's support for the Palestinian people in Gaza. The Houthis vowed to respond, stating their forces were fully prepared to escalate the conflict.
On March 17, Houthi spokesperson Yahya Sarea announced in a video statement that, in retaliation for the U.S. airstrikes, the Houthis had launched 18 ballistic and cruise missiles, along with a drone, at the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier and its fleet in the northern Red Sea.
The Houthis reiterated on March 16 that they would not remain passive in the face of U.S. attacks and were fully prepared to escalate their response. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi declared that all U.S. aircraft carriers and warships would be targeted, accusing the U.S. of turning the seas into a battlefield and threatening international shipping routes.
Surge in Oil Tanker and Dry Bulk Carrier Diversions
Despite the Houthis not attacking commercial ships since the beginning of the year, the Red Sea shipping crisis is far from over. Recent data shows a significant increase in diversions of oil tankers and dry bulk carriers in 2025, with Suez Canal traffic plummeting by 72% compared to 2023, severely impacting Egypt's economy. Meanwhile, the EU has extended its Red Sea mission to 2026, reflecting long-term international concerns over the situation.
According to Jefferies, dry bulk carrier diversions accounted for 56% of 2023 volumes, up from 45% in 2024. Crude oil tanker diversions rose from 35% to 48%, while product tanker diversions increased from 45% to 52%. Container shipping has also been heavily affected, with transit volumes in the region dropping by 90% compared to 2023. LNG and LPG carrier diversions remained stable, with 80% and 74% of their capacities, respectively, bypassing the region.
High Risks to Shipping Security
On March 12, the Houthis announced the resumption of their ban on "Israel-affiliated vessels" in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. British security firm Ambrey warned that the vague definition of targets under this ban poses risks, advising shipowners to reassess Red Sea route safety. Although no recent attacks have occurred, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported multiple incidents of navigation systems being electronically jammed, forcing ships to rely on backup systems.
Shipping analysts noted that the fragility of the Gaza ceasefire, escalating sectarian conflicts in Syria, and heightened U.S.-Iran tensions could prompt the Houthis to resume attacks. Leszczynski emphasized, "Most shipowners are still choosing to avoid the region, as the safety of crew and vessels cannot be risked."